Hello and Welcome to a new edition of Market Movers Weekly. In a surprising twist, the stock market had a good run, buoyed by a stellar jobs report showing 303,000 new positions in March, way above forecasts and hinting at a robust U.S. economy. Yet, despite this boom and easing recession fears, public sentiment towards policymakers hasn't brightened, highlighting the complexity of economic mood swings amidst rising inflation and gas prices.
These strong job figures could prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider rate cuts, especially with the looming presidential election. Mixed reactions marked the week's market performance, reflecting investor caution amidst global uncertainties and Fed speculation. This balancing act of job growth, inflation concerns, and Fed's future moves keeps investors on their toes, shaping market dynamics and economic outlooks as they ponder the broader impact on spending, business performance, and overall economic health.
Bitcoin’s Riding a Wave
Bitcoin's about to hit some exciting times with a big event in April 2024 expected to push prices up. Meanwhile, everyone's gossiping about the SEC maybe nodding yes to Ether ETFs, but it's all up in the air. Plus, with inflation acting up, the Fed's next move on interest rates is anyone's guess. Bitcoin's been killing it with a 64% jump in Q1 2024. With all these events lined up, Bitcoin's looking even hotter.
Citigroup Says Stock Market Might Be Partying Too Hard
Citigroup's giving us a heads-up: the stock market might be getting a little too wild. Their Levkovich Index is showing we're in the "too much fun" zone, hinting at a possible crash landing soon. Even with everyone feeling the high, Citigroup's telling us to cool it, especially with tech stocks, and maybe look elsewhere too.
Tesla’s Hitting Some Bumps, According to JPMorgan
JPMorgan's not feeling too hot about Tesla after they missed their latest car delivery numbers. They're even betting Tesla's stock could drop further from here, thanks to some production snags and tough competition, especially from China. Despite Tesla's shares taking a dive this year, JPMorgan thinks there might be more bumpy roads ahead.
Steve Eisman’s All In on Green Infrastructure
The guy who called the big financial crash, Steve Eisman, is now all about infrastructure stocks, thanks to a big push on green projects. He's been chatting on Bloomberg about how he's picked out 30 companies that are set to win big from the U.S.'s green makeover. Quanta Services, one of his picks, is already flying high.
Inflation Watch: Fed’s Next Move's a Big Deal
All eyes are on what the inflation reports are gonna say, with folks buzzing about the Fed possibly cutting rates. The stock market's been feeling good, hoping for those cuts, but if inflation's still being a pain, it could kill the vibe. So, everyone's watching those reports like a hawk, ready for whatever comes next.
This week in Bidenomics: Too many jobs?
In the Bidenomics world this week, we're kinda wondering, "Is there such a thing as too many jobs?" President Biden’s got more bragging rights with the job market exploding beyond what the eggheads thought possible. But, who knows, maybe it's too much of a good thing?
March saw the economy adding a crazy 303,000 new jobs, smashing what experts predicted by 50%. That’s insanely good news, especially since everyone's been worried about an economic nosedive or recession, which, by the way, hasn’t happened.
Biden keeps hyping up the job scene, boasting about historic job growth. Yet, oddly, this hasn’t bumped up his popularity. Despite adding a whopping 6.4 million jobs, his approval's been stuck at around 40% for a year.
Turns out, job numbers alone aren’t making folks feel the economy's on the right track. What might help? Getting inflation to chill or even back off would be sweet. With gas prices ticking up, Biden’s team is scrambling to keep it in check.
Another score for Biden would be if the Fed slashed interest rates, making big-ticket purchases like homes or cars more affordable. But, the job market being on fire might keep the Fed from making moves that could help Biden before November rolls around.
Economist David Rosenberg gave it to us straight: the job market is too hot for the Fed's comfort. This means the Fed's more likely to keep rates as they are.
Ryan Sweet from Oxford Economics notes that the job market strength and the Fed's inflation concerns are pushing back hopes for a rate cut.
At the start of the year, bets were high (like 98% high) that the Fed would cut rates by June. After the latest jobs report? That chance has plummeted to just 53%.
As the presidential election looms, the Fed's decisions get trickier. Fed Chair Jerome Powell insists the Fed doesn’t play political games. Their decisions stand firm, out of sync with election cycles.
As Election Day approaches, the Fed's window to make impactful decisions, like rate cuts, narrows, complicating Biden's path. With the next major decision slated for just after the election, any move could sway political tides. Yet, Biden's bigger hurdle remains: bolstering his approval amid solid economic performance yet voter desire for more than mere stability and gradual inflation control. The urgency to inspire voter enthusiasm intensifies.
Tech Stocks Bounce Back Big Time
After a killer jobs report, tech stocks led a massive comeback, shaking off some recent nerves. Even with a bit of a weekly slump, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all climbed, pumped by way more new jobs than anyone guessed.
Economy Zooming Too Fast for Rate Cuts?
Looks like the economy's on a tear, making those rate cut hopes a bit dimmer. Apollo's head economist reckons with the stock market booming and spending up, the Fed's probably not touching those rates anytime soon, even with some Fed folks hinting they're playing it safe.
Retail’s Big Oil Price Question
As oil prices flirt with $100, everyone's watching to see if shopping's gonna get pricier. Levi's CFO isn't sweating it, betting on long-term deals and some smart moves to keep costs cool even if oil keeps climbing.
Job Report Drops Jaws
March’s job numbers were off the charts good, smashing expectations with 303,000 new jobs and nudging unemployment down to 3.8%. Looks like the economy’s still on a roll, with steady job growth and inflation not freaking anyone out just yet.
